According to the Voice of Economy's "Traffic Facts" report, Wu Wenyi, an analyst at Guojin Securities Automotive Industry Co., Ltd., had a "transactional reality" to interpret the investment opportunities in the auto industry. Wu Wenxuan believes that there will not be a significant decline in the demand and sales volume of heavy trucks.
The demand side of heavy trucks will not be worse than it is at present, and there will not be a significant decline. However, as to how much recovery there is, we must pay attention to macroeconomic changes.
Wu Wenbiao: It should be said that the basic judgment of heavy trucks is that the demand is already at the bottom of the trough. At least, the demand should be said to have stabilized. However, it is still not certain how large the recovery rate can be. Recently, we have communicated with many companies and conducted research. Now, basically, the demand and sales will not have a very obvious decline. The next year will be better than this year. Is there a big improvement? For example, if it is a very high growth rate of 20% or 300%, it is still not clear. In general, it will depend on the overall macroeconomic situation next year. A situation.
Wu Wentao: Major construction projects actually refer more to infrastructure projects. The heavy truck can be divided into two parts. One is the engineering heavy truck, which is mainly related to investment. The investment related to it is mainly the infrastructure and the real estate. It may be water conservancy, but the water conservancy is because the total investment scale is relatively small. A larger part of this is in infrastructure construction. Just now, major construction projects are also referred to as infrastructure. The demand for infrastructure heavy trucks can account for about half of engineering needs.
With respect to major construction projects, the background proposed by the State to resume work in succession may also indicate that there may be a relatively large recovery in demand for the heavy truck industry.
Wu Wendi: We think this trend can be established. When it can come out, it needs to be observed. There is a conductive problem in the middle. It takes time from the recovery of downstream projects and then directly to the demand for heavy trucks, because there is also a problem of social stocks. The current general view is that there are more stocks in heavy trucks. First of all, your downstream engineering orders may come from digesting stocks, and stocks can be digested almost in order to drive the sales of new cars.
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