In 2013, LED demand rebounded rapidly, and Taiwan's LED industry packaging started ahead of the chip, showing strong demand. This round of LED lighting orders confirmed that the company's profitability has gradually stabilized and expanded. We believe that the increase in lighting demand is the main driving force for this round of industry recovery. We expect the compound growth rate of LED lighting demand to reach 59 in the next three years. LED lighting is expected to push the industry into a new cycle.
The new supply is limited, and the lighting demand will double the market space: since 2011, the LED industry capacity expansion has come to an end, and the new supply in the short-term market is limited. From the perspective of market space, the global general lighting market is about 400 billion yuan, and the corresponding LED usage is more than ten times that of current LED demand, and the market space will be expanded exponentially. Combined with the current LED lighting penetration rate, we believe that the domestic LED lighting development speed will be significantly faster than the global level.
Policy escort to accelerate the popularity of LED lighting. Plans for the elimination of incandescent lamps have been widely introduced in various countries and regions. Europe, the United States, Japan and China are all planning to completely eliminate incandescent lamps within 2-3 years. In addition to the elimination of the incandescent roadmap at the national level, national subsidies and local government LED lighting promotion plans have also been launched. We expect the introduction of energy-saving lighting subsidy policies and the active promotion of local governments will accelerate the popularization of LED lighting products.
Follow the smile curve and be optimistic about upstream and downstream application companies. The LED industry is a blue ocean market with huge space. Judging from the industry chain, we are optimistic about upstream chip companies and downstream lighting application companies. As the current LED lighting demand has just started, the performance of upstream chip companies is relatively flexible. In the lighting field, as the terminal products are oriented to customers, related companies have customers and channel resources, and the profit margin is higher. We believe that the future investment opportunities are even greater.
Investment strategy: We believe that the market is still in its infancy. The current stock price trend comes from the market demand expansion expectation and valuation restoration. The future stock price driving force will come from the gradual confirmation of performance, with a focus on upstream Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda. Sunlight lighting, which is dominated by channels, is recommended to focus on Ruifeng Optoelectronics and Jufei Optoelectronics, which have made breakthroughs in medium and large-size backlights.
risk warning:
1. The risk of fluctuations in LED demand;
2. The risk of continued decline in LED product prices;
3. The risk of continuous refinancing in the middle and upper reaches;
4. The risk of continuous industry consolidation and shuffling may occur in the middle and lower reaches.
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