Since entering the season of fertilizer use this spring, nitrogen fertilizer has declined from high to low, and potassium phosphate fertilizer has remained at a high level. This is not completely in line with the current tight supply of nitrogen fertilizer and the supply of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer.
It is understood that in the first two months of this year's fertilizer production, both phosphate and potash fertilizers increased substantially compared with the same period of last year, while nitrogen fertilizer decreased slightly. According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, a total of 4.911 million tons of chemical fertilizers were produced in the country in February, which was a 7% increase from the previous month and an increase of 8.9% from February last year. In terms of sub-categories, from January to February, the cumulative production of potassium fertilizer was 292,000 tons, an increase of 98.6% year-on-year; cumulative production of phosphorus fertilizer was 2.349 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. In February, nitrogen fertilizer production stabilized, production reached 3.576 million tons, an increase of 3.5% over the same period of last year, and physical production of urea was 4.613 million tons, an increase of 4.8% from the previous month. However, the cumulative production of nitrogen fertilizer was 6.885 million tons in the first two months, still a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year. %.
Under this production situation, the fertilizer demand forecast provided by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that with the popularization and application of soil testing and fertilizer application technology, the growth of nitrogen fertilizer application has slowed down. In 2009, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer application was about 34 million tons. It is expected that nitrogen fertilizer demand will be between 33 million and 35 million tons in the next few years.
At the same time, the demand for nitrogen fertilizers this year is also affected by other factors - subsidies for drought-resistance watering in winter wheat, subsidies for weak seedlings for returning green leaves in winter wheat, subsidies for rice breeding in greenhouses in northeastern China, and subsidies for corn-mulching cultivation in southwestern and northwestern regions are favorable for consumption of nitrogenous fertilizer; since February The drought-fighting and watering in the northern regions is also conducive to the topdressing of nitrogenous fertilizers; the rate at which maize in the northeast region enters soybean withdrawal is accelerating, and the demand for nitrogen fertilizers from corn is five times that of soybeans. In the second half of last year, with more nitrogen fertilizer exports, rising coal prices, falling fertilizer prices, and a large number of nitrogen-utility companies shutting down and overhauling during the two quarters, the supply of nitrogen fertilizers was more intense than that of phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers. Authoritative analysis believes that the operating rate of nitrogen fertilizer companies needs to remain above 75% to ensure market demand.
Since 1980, the domestic consumption of phosphate fertilizer has grown rapidly, with an average annual growth of 5.7%, and it was around 13 million tons in 2009. It is expected that the demand for phosphate fertilizer will tend to be basically stable in the next few years. Since 1981, the domestic agricultural potassium fertilizer consumption has been growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%. In 2005, it reached 6.7 million tons (K2O). In recent years, due to the high market price, the actual application amount has fluctuated between 550 and 7 million tons. It is expected that the demand for potash fertilizer will slow down in the next few years, and potash fertilizer demand will be about 7 million tons.
However, this year's nitrogen fertilizer market is not completely in line with demand, although once urea prices generally reached more than 2,000 yuan per ton, but prices have fallen again and again after entering in March, when the lowest ex-factory price of urea in some enterprises was as low as 1,800 yuan per ton. Far less stable than phosphate and potash fertilizers. In this regard, the industry analysts believe that this lack of supply and demand and the price is only a temporary phenomenon, and the delay in the start of the spring plow, after the Spring Festival nitrogen fertilizer companies concentrated production, high raw material prices affect the company's cash flow and other factors. With rising temperatures, the return of crops in the north and the start of fertilizer preparation in the Northeast, urea prices should return to rationality.
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