Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an urgent notice requesting that in 2011 the key contract thermal coal prices remain the same level in 2010 and do not disguise the price in any form.
The reporter was informed that in 2010 the price of key coal contracts was 520 yuan/ton. This price is about 200 yuan/tonne difference with the current market coal price.
Analysts pointed out that after the "strict control" of coal prices, relevant companies will reduce supply, the "coal barren" situation will intensify, coupled with the decline in coal imports, which will pose a severe power supply for the summer of this year. challenge.
Power plant, port inventory coal fell across the board
The reporter was informed that at present, local coal power in Hubei has slid to a “warning line†of 1.6 million tons, which can only guarantee two weeks of power generation.
According to another group of data, as of March 27, the entire network of coal in Central China Power Grid fell to 9.14 million tons, of which the supply of coal in Hunan is the most severe, and 540,000 tons of coal can only be used for 4 days, which is lower than the warning line.
At present, Hunan Power Grid has a power generation capacity of about 8 million kilowatts due to lack of coal shutdowns, poor thermal power coal quality, low water and electricity heads, and unit overhauls. Based on this, Hunan Province has implemented orderly power supply measures on March 21st, with a maximum daily capacity of approximately 1.2 million kilowatts and a maximum daily capacity of 11 million kilowatt-hours.
On March 29, Shaanxi Province announced the economic situation in the first quarter of this year that the province's coal inventories amounted to 702,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30%. The State Grid Northwest Power Grid Corporation actively reported to the State Grid Corporation of China that it had reduced the transmission of Shaanxi electric power and coordinated and organized Western provinces and regions to provide abundant power to support Shaanxi.
At the same time, coal inventories at major ports are also declining. As of March 31, Qinhuangdao Port’s coal inventories amounted to 7.282 million tons, a week-on-month decline of 1.33%, and it has dropped 1.197 million tons of coal inventories from the beginning of the month; SDIC Jingtang Port The coal inventory was 1.56 million tons, a 23.15% decrease from the beginning of the month; the SDIC Caofeidian port coal inventory decreased by 500,000 tons to 1.97 million tons from the beginning of the month. The three major northern coal transit port inventories have dropped for four consecutive weeks, with an overall decline of 16.7%.
Overseas coal sellers suspended their offer to China
It is understood that with the tight supply of domestic coal, some suppliers of thermal coal and coking coal such as Australia have suspended the quotation from Chinese importers.
Industry analysts believe that after the earthquake in Japan, the demand for energy imports accelerated, and it may affect Chinese coal imports in the third quarter of this year.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, China’s coal imports in February were only 6.76 million tons, a decrease of 47.6%, which is the lowest monthly import level since April 2009.
Compared with the same period of last year, Guangdong's coal imports fell by about 50% in the same period last year, which also directly led to a significant decline in coal inventory in Guangdong Province.
In the international arena, the nuclear crisis in Japan and the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa began to affect the world energy market and coal prices skyrocketed. International oil prices continued to rise on the 4th. At the close of the day, oil prices in New York and London were once again set to rise at two-and-a-half year highs.
The Swiss mining giant Xstrata signed a supply contract with China National Electric Power Co., Ltd. for the current financial year (starting on April 1st). Xstrata, which is listed in London, will supply the latter with electricity at a price of US$130 per ton for coal used as fuel for coal-fired power plants, an increase of 32.6% over the 2010-2011 price of US$98 per ton. According to reports, the latest contract price is also higher than the historical record of US$125 per ton for 2008-2009, setting a price benchmark for Asia that is eager for energy.
Credit Suisse Commodity analysts said that to some extent, the contract exceeded market expectations. The contract price reflects the high calorific value of coal consumed by power plants in Asia, which is mainly due to the poor weather in Australia and the increasing overall demand in the past six months, especially the demand of China and India.
In any case, this price is not competitive in China. The cost of importing all kinds of coal has been more expensive than that of domestic companies purchasing from Shanxi, ranging from tens of dollars to several hundred dollars. Some companies’ coal imports have basically become Stagnation.
Coal and electricity linkage
The above-mentioned circumstances indicate that on the one hand, the supply of coal for some provinces and municipalities is tight, and on the other side, the NDRC does not allow the price of key coal contracts to increase. This makes thermal power plants and coal suppliers face a dilemma. Who will resolve this contradiction?
Dong Xing Securities analyst Zhou Hongyu told reporters that the coal price negotiations have been facing difficulties, and coal prices have become a headache for coal companies and power companies. He believes that in the current situation of high inflation, coal-fired linkage mechanism can not yet take place, not to mention the electricity price of people's livelihood, can not easily rise.
He explained that coal prices have long been market-oriented, and electricity prices are still regulated by the state. Although the price of the key contract coal prices is not allowed to increase prices, companies may increase their prices in disguise by supplying coal with low combustion value, so this time The NDRC pointed out in particular that it cannot disguise the price in any form.
There are also insiders pointed out that due to the current contract price and the market price of coal has a price difference of about 200 yuan / ton, so the key contract coal prices locked down less and less, the cashing rate is getting lower and lower.
The China Energy Research Institute's Energy Policy Research Center reported that the actual execution price of key coal-fired coal contracts in 2011 will be raised by RMB 30/tonne on the basis of 2010. If electricity prices cannot be effectively channelled at that time, the loss of thermal power companies may further increase.
From 2003 to 2004, from 2006 to 2007 and at the beginning of 2010, there have been various degrees of “coal shortageâ€, “electricity shortage†and “oil shortageâ€. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, believes that this is caused by the stagnation of electricity reform and the inability of both supply and demand sides to conduct effective transactions.
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