Strive to Form the Healthy Development Pattern of Rare Earth Industry in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period
Since April 2006, when the Ministry of Land and Resources stopped issuing new rare earth mining rights certificates, the country started to rectify the rare earth industry in the true sense. However, in recent years, it has mainly reduced the export quota of rare earth products by controlling the total amount of resource extraction. Rare earth products export tariffs and other issues. Industry mergers and reorganizations are mainly initiated by local state-owned enterprises, represented by the industrial leader Baotou Steel Rare Earth, and have made indelible contributions to the industrial concentration of rare earth industries.
In the past two years, as the price of rare earths has continued to rise, the state has placed greater emphasis on the rare earth industry. This time, we will use the height of the State Council executive meeting to study and deploy policies and measures to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the rare earth industry. Content from the industry access, resources mining, down to deep processing technology development, etc. are all taken into account, involving all aspects of the rare earth industry.
The meeting is particularly important: for the first time, the specific time for rectification was clarified: "We will strive to develop a sustainable and healthy development pattern for the rare earth industry with reasonable development, orderly production, efficient use, advanced technology, and intensive development in five years or so." This means that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the pattern of sustained and healthy development of China's rare earth industries will be formed. With the constraints of the deployment of specific time, many unresolved issues of industrial rectification will be quickly resolved, which is a major advantage for the industry. With the complete awakening of the Chinese government’s awareness of resource conservation, the rest of the world’s days of enjoying the cheap Chinese rare earth have ended.
Four policy measures
Increase rectification efforts
Judging from the specific contents of the four major policy measures, the following rectification efforts will be very strict: “We must resolutely crack down on various types of illegal and illegal activities such as exploitation of illegally exploited and super-controlled indicators, illegal production and over-planned production, ecological destruction, and environmental pollution. Maintaining industrial order.†The implementation of this measure will ban a group of upstream miners and midstream smelters who are still illegally exploiting or environmental protection but are lucky enough to survive; but from another angle of thinking, the non-survivors of this national reorganization can survive. Resource-based separation companies will also become "scarce resources" on another level. “Intensify the integration and development of rare earth resources and speed up mergers and acquisitions in the industry.†This policy measure is expected to accelerate the merger and reorganization of Southern Heavy Rare Earth Enterprises, which is still in a state of chaos. The implementation of these two measures will be conducive to the development of key enterprises in the industry and greatly increase the concentration of rare earth industries. It can be predicted that during the renovation phase, the supply of rare earths will inevitably be tightened and prices will continue to rise.
In 2009, China’s rare earth industry accumulated a total industrial output value of 24.07 billion yuan, and achieved a sales income of 24.37 billion yuan. The industry data for 2010 has not yet been announced. According to the trend of rare earth prices, the year-on-year increase in 2010 has more than doubled. Therefore, it can be inferred that the total industrial output value of the rare earth industry in China in 2010 will be 50 billion to 60 billion. Relying on the sale of rare earth primary processing products to obtain 50 billion to 60 billion yuan worth of production value, it is really let us speak of the title of "large rare earth country." Taking yttrium oxide as an example, 99% purity yttrium oxide is currently sold at a domestic price of 38,000 yuan/ton, but the current price of 99.99% yttrium oxide is 76,000 yuan/ton, and the selling price is double the price. It is understood that, mainly due to technical reasons, most domestic companies are satisfied with the production and sale of 99% purity cerium oxide. The production of high value-added deep-processed rare earth products is another urgent task. Therefore, “accelerate the R&D and industrialization of rare earth key application technologies, guide and organize rare earth production and application companies, R&D institutions and institutions of higher learning, vigorously develop deep processing and comprehensive utilization technologies, and promote the industrialization of scientific and technological achievements with independent intellectual property rights for development strategies. Sex and emerging industries provide support. The implementation of this measure is the only way for China to truly become a “rare earth nationâ€.
In general, the four major policy measures are most of the problems faced by the Sword Index industry, and the country’s understanding of the industry is very good. The key is to look at the implementation of the measures. The meeting clarified the division of responsibilities and asked all relevant regions and departments to strengthen organizational leadership and coordination, do a good job of supervision and inspection, implement the responsibility system, and ensure that all policies and measures are implemented. In five years, looking forward to the great changes in China's rare earth industry, investors are also expected to usher in the opportunity of the rare earth industry across the "twelfth five-year" period.
Baotou Steel Rare Earth will benefit in depth
The reorganization of the industry started at the national level will consolidate the rising trend of rare earth prices. The industry leader Baotou Steel Rare Earth (600111) will surely be the biggest beneficiary. We adjust the company's earnings per share for 2010 to 2012 as follows: 0.94 yuan, 1.50 yuan and 2.00 yuan forecast, the company's performance has a good definite growth trend. Based on the sound development of the industry and the prominent industry status of the company, we maintain our "recommended" investment rating for Baotou Steel Rare Earth.
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