In July, the year-on-year growth of auto production and sales fell. In July 2012, the national automobile production and sales were 1.437 million and 1.379 million, respectively, an increase of 10.0% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively. The production and sales of passenger cars increased by 12.8% and 10.7% respectively year-on-year; the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 1.3% and 1.6% respectively year-on-year. July was the traditional low season for car sales. Automobile sales fell month-on-month, passenger car growth slowed down, heavy-duty truck industry remained sluggish, and passenger car industry growth rate increased year-on-year. Due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and the decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment, heavy truck sales have been bleak this year. In July, the passenger car market showed an overall trend of not being slack during the off-season. Sales volume increased by 14.6% year-on-year. In August and September, it will enter the peak season. With the introduction of school bus management regulations and the launch of the school bus market, the bus industry will continue to improve.
Shenyin Wanguo believes that at this stage, it mainly maintains a medium-term strategic perspective. It is expected that the growth rate of passenger vehicles in the third quarter will fall, and the overall earnings of the industry will face a slight downward trend. In terms of individual stocks, companies that focus on product structure shifting while benefiting from policy guidance: Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, SAIC; parts are optimistic about precision forging technology, Huayu Automobile; continue to firmly optimistic about large and medium-sized buses leading Yutong buses; heavy truck rebound opportunities still need to be wait.
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